Will Covid 19, eventually disappear at year’s end like an annual flu. No. It could last for several years like previous pandemics. Why.? Here are some reasons:
- A vaccine may not be developed. It normally takes ten years to develop a vaccine for a new type of virus.
- If developed the virus may mutate making it ineffective. “…new and deadly non influenza microbes are emerging or mutating in unpredictable and dangerous ways” writes an epidemiologist Michael Osterholm in theForeign Affairs Journal (July/august 2020).
- Clinical trials in Phase 3 have many trials that do not work (it is often called “the valley of death”) with as much as 80% not working. Phase 3 is the actual inoculation on humans, requiring at least 30,000 participants.
- Once approved, large scale manufacturing and delivery may take many months or even years.
A detailed study about what it takes to develop a vaccine can be found in the June 14 New York Times Magazine ( Moon Shot by Siddhartha Mukherjee)
